Svmuu News: Bitfinex Alpha’s latest report notes that Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale sale of Bitcoin, but the market has shown strong resilience, with no significant selling pressure. Bitcoin After falling to a cycle low of $57,803 on July 1, the market began to rebound. The trend in July has so far remained positive, consistent with the view presented in Bitfinex Alpha’s previous Report No. 212 that the market may see a recovery this month.
Data indicates that Strategy may have executed BTC sales between June 29 and July 2; however, the weekly price gain for the Bitcoin remained positive during that period, rising approximately 10.5% from the cycle low.Additionally, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, the Bitcoin’s spot ETF recorded consecutive daily inflows exceeding $200 million, ending a streak of 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows totaling $2.73 billion.
June was a difficult month for the Bitcoin ETF in terms of capital flows; on a weekly basis, the ETF has experienced net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, with net redemptions for the month of June alone approaching $4.06 billion.However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF shares and a decline in passive fund demand; they do not indicate that large amounts of Bitcoin are being immediately sold through on-chain markets. At present, the market cannot yet fully determine whether investors have fully priced in the recent changes in capital flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows.As ETF asset allocations shift and capital flows turn positive again, the Bitcoin market may see new developments in July. Following a brief dip after the announcement of Strategy’s sale, the BTC price quickly stabilized and has now returned to the lower end of its first-quarter trading range, remaining above pre-announcement levels.ETF capital flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, while the $61,000 level has become a key dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a downtrend on higher time frames, but the market structure is shifting. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss position, while about 9.22 million BTC remain in profit—marking the first time the number of coins in loss has exceeded those in profit.Historically, this phase typically indicates that spot holders are under significant pressure and often signals the formation of a bear market bottom. However, a true macro bottom still requires confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin sustaining a recovery above the current “True Market Mean” of approximately $71,500.
Although the current market environment is dampening sentiment in the short term, it is also creating conditions for long-term capital to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whales begin to accumulate again, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to higher-conviction investors, and the next 2 to 3 months may become a crucial window for confirming a short-term bottom.